Macklin Celebrini sets the gold standard for the 2024 NHL Draft class
Macklin Celebrini, from the jump, was always the consensus top pick for the 2024 NHL Draft.
There was some debate whether someone — Ivan Demidov for example — could potentially close the gap, but Celebrini has taken his draft stock this season and truly set the gold standard of the class. Teams, or at least fanbases, were tanking for him. It’s clear that he has the opportunity to be the face of a franchise for the foreseeable future.
The Vancouver, British Columbia product is the clear No. 1 after absolutely took the NCAA by storm.
Rinse and repeat.
The 6-foot, 190-pound center shredded that junior circuit with the Chicago Steel of the United States Hockey League last season to the tune of 86 points (46 goals, 40 assists) in 50 games. This season, as a true freshman at Boston University, Celebrini has looked like their best player bar none.
And he was — association-wide.
With 64 points (32 goals, 32 assists) in just 38 games, Celebrini became the fourth freshman — and the youngest player ever — to capture the Hobey Baker as college hockey’s top player.
He’s assuredly going to become a member of the San Jose Sharks, after the Sharks won the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery.
Here’s what they’re getting in Celebrini.
How does Celebrini attack the game?
Cerebral is the one word that comes closest to describing the way Celebrini steps onto the ice for each shift.
Offensively, there are times where he doesn’t have to find the puck. Instead, the puck simply finds him. That’s the trait of a truly dynamic player who always knows where to go, when to arrive, and how to get there. Once with the puck, Celebrini is incredibly difficult to slow down. He is an A-plus problem solver who can simply use puck manipulation and his smooth skating to draw defenders away from where he wants to go before quickly attacking that opening. That allows him to show off his powerful and accurate shot. Or, if the shooting lane isn’t there, he can also set up teammates with strong passing instincts.
Celebrini is the definition of a multi-dimensional offensive player as well, with the well-balanced offensive skillset. Not only that, he can turn up the heat and play at a fast pace or he can slow it down and settle the play. His offensive game, however, is just one layer. Celebrini plays a complete 200-foot game, with strong transitional traits and a very smart and calculated defensive game. He is one of the rare occasions where a player’s game is truly complete.
Celebrini is a smooth and quick skater, who can make defenders pay with his feet alone
A good frame and quick feet is a lethal combination for most. Add the puck skills and the smarts? Celebrini is a near-elite skater because of it. His ability to dash through traffic in the neutral zone like a hot knife through butter is truly a sight to behold. He can at times blow right past defenders when he enters the zone with a head full of steam, and as a result nets some scoring chances in tight. But his main skating trait was the smoothness — all thanks to his edges.
He does not have that extra gear to his skating consistently, but he really does not need it, either. The way he can cut back on a dime, easily change directions without losing speed, and stickhandle all at that top speed makes it so that he does not need high-end, truly elite pace. But if it makes teams feel any better, there are times where he can cruise past defenders. If he can fully unlock that ability and add that to his arsenal, Celebrini could truly become a full-on game-breaker. Every other team should take caution if he, likely inevitably, does.
Celebrini as a shooter
Celebrini is a dangerous shooter, and has been a high-end producer over the past two seasons. How has he been able to sustain such a high level of production as a goal-scorer? At even-strength, across three randomly tracked games, Celebrini fired off 15 shot attempts, with seven hitting the net for a 46.67% success rate. Of those seven on the net, three were goals. Overall, amongst those 15 shots, four came from high-danger areas as defined as the home-plate area in front of the net, with all four hitting the net, again, two of them being goals. Another six shots came from medium danger, as defined as just outside of the dots and tops of the circles, with three on net, including one goal. The remaining five shots all came from low-danger areas, with all five being blocked.
On the power play across those same games, Celebrini fired off 12 shots with five hitting the net for a 41.67% rate, and two more finding the back of the net. Of the 12 shots, two came from high-danger, neither on net, and the remaining 10 shots came from medium danger. Five of his shots were blocked, similar to his even-strength totals. These stats all point out one big thing — Celebrini can score from distance. They aren’t necessarily low-danger areas, but he doesn’t need to be in tight to the net in those red-hot areas to be a massive threat.
Celebrini is a scoring threat on his own, but don’t doubt his passing skills
While Celebrini is a dangerous scorer, defenders cannot sell out to prevent shots. Why? He will find a way out of trouble almost every single time and, when he does, that means one of his teammates is open and he will find them. Across the three tracked games, Celebrini attempted 29 passes in the offensive zone, completing 22 of them for a 75.86% rate. Twelve of those passes were deemed high-danger, and he completed eight. He also recorded seven shot assists, with three leading to scoring chances, — all at even-strength. Of the incomplete passes, four were intercepted and three were inaccurate but did not lead to turnovers.
Celebrini attempted 33 passes on the power play, completing all but one. That, in large part, is due to 26 of those attempts being considered low danger, of which he completed 25. He then attempted just one high-danger pass. He also completed all six of his passes considered medium danger. With that, he recorded four shot assists, with all of them being scoring chances. What these numbers display is Celebrini’s ability to set up chances in the offensive zone without being all gas and no brakes. He does not rely on flashiness and an ability to constantly attack high-danger situations. Celebrini can slow things down and set plays up with patience and poise, without losing much in the way of efficiency.
Celebrini limits mistakes with his problem solving
Another bonus to Celebrini’s style is the lack of mistakes he makes coupled with the fact he is so smart and calculated that he can force his opponents into making mistakes. In the three games, Celebrini wound up forcing seven takeaways in the offensive zone off his forecheck. What that means is that he was the primary reason for a takeaway made in a situation where the puck changed possession. He also held the puck in the zone at the blue line four times, extending offensive zone possessions. He had four giveaways and the aforementioned four intercepted passes. In total, at even-strength, that’s 11 takeaways to eight giveaways.
Celebrini didn’t factor in much with forcing turnovers or chasing the puck on the power play. More or less, his team had control of the puck so much that he didn’t need to. But he still recorded one keep-in at the blue line while recording one giveaway. None of his passes were intercepted, thus he had a one-to-one ratio of takeaways and giveaways on the man advantage.
Offensive game summation
Overall, Celebrini really is a heady player. He can turn up the heat and make teams pay when the time calls for it but, generally, he uses his incredible hockey IQ, timing, and an overall understanding of how to manipulate defensive coverages to beat teams with a pass or a shot. He works on the left side of the power play, his shooting side, and is often the target of passes. There, he can find small pockets of space where a teammate can easily find him in a good spot. If he gets off a one-timer from those spots, it’s almost assuredly going into the net.
Celebrini showcases a lethal hockey sense at even strength, where he seemingly knows exactly where the puck is going and can force mistakes. Off those mistakes, he can use his hands and puck manipulation skills to draw teammates open or give himself a shooting lane. His smarts, timing, and puck skills together make him a threat with and without the puck every single time he hops over the boards. Long story short, Celebrini will have a phenomenal offensive presence in the NHL.
Impact puck-mover through the neutral zone
Celebrini is outstanding when it comes to transporting the puck up ice. His awareness as a puck-carrier and ability to problem solve shines bright in the neutral zone. In three games, he was directly involved in 34 zone entry attempts. Of those, his team was able to enter the offensive zone with possession on 21 of them for a 61.76% success rate. He dumped the puck in on another two attempts, though neither was retrieved. That leaves 11 attempts where he failed to gain the zone at all.
The biggest issue was that, at times, Celebrini tried to do too much on his own. Of the 21 controlled entries, he carried it in on his own on 15. Thus, he used his teammates on just six of those entries. While he is exceptionally smart with the puck, he can have some tunnel vision once he finds a lane and attempts to drive into the zone.
He was directly involved in 10 zone entry attempts on the power play. Of those, his team gained the offensive zone on seven of them for a 70% entry rate. He added two dump-ins as well, with one being retrieved. He failed just once, but still relied on himself to get the job done the majority of the time, with five carry-ins versus two entry passes. Celebrini is very effective as a transitional player overall, but perhaps the best thing with him here is that he builds up his speed with the puck and can pose as a direct threat off the rush. That quality is increasingly more valued by teams as the years pass. Celebrini, as he becomes a better skater and continues to fine-tune his game, will only get better in this area as well.
Exiting the defensive zone, the same positives (and negatives) remain
The same story exists when it comes to exiting the defensive zone. Celebrini is very efficient, and a strong problem-solver, but he still relies on himself to get the job done. In those three games, he was directly involved in 23 zone exit attempts. Of those, 16 got out of the defensive zone with possession for a 69.57% exit rate. Two more were chipped out of the zone without possession, and on another two attempts Celebrini was guilty of icing the puck. That leaves three failed attempts. But again, of the controlled exits, 12 were carry-outs, while the other four were passes to teammates.
On the power play, he was involved in just one zone exit, which was a successful carry-out. He also was involved in a zone exit attempt on the penalty kill, where he failed to exit the zone. Overall, Celebrini knows how to use his skating ability to attack open space and using his smarts to identify spaces and lanes to skate through.
Strong motor and smarts in the defensive zone
There are very few holes to Celebrini’s game, and that continues into how he plays defensively. His patience and poise shines through in his own end, which he pairs well with a quick stick. Add to that a strong motor when the puck is in his area, and Celebrini is someone who plays a very complete game. He’s also very good on the backcheck, with a strong understanding of angles and playing opposing forwards into a teammate who can then cut them off. That’s evident in the fact he recorded seven entry disruptions, preventing or disrupted what could have been a controlled zone entry against, on his own in the three tracked games.
In zone, Celebrini had 28 defensive-zone puck touches, with just three giveaways. He offsets his giveaways by forcing 10 takeaways himself, making a big impact in his own zone. While Celebrini is not necessarily dominant in his own end, and his patience can be a blessing and a curse when defending, he is still incredibly reliable. That reliability makes him a coach’s dream, where they can throw him out on the ice in any situation and not have to grip their clipboards any tighter.
Projection: Where will he go, and what upside does he possess
There are no doubts — Celebrini is the No. 1 pick once the clock starts ticking down on the first selection. It’s hard to fathom a scenario where he isn’t the first selection.
But with everything broken down, what does this mean for his future role? Celebrini should be in the NHL by next season with the Sharks, and he’ll slide right into the top-six of their lineups immediately.
As for upside, Celebrini could be a phenomenal player. He plays very smart and responsible, while still maintaining his dangerous presence with the puck on his stick — a bit of a quiet assassin, if you will, where he will strike when the opportunities present themselves. That being said, he very well could be a No. 1 center down the line with the potential as a 30-goal, 80-plus point contributor offensively. He can lead a power play, provide assistance as a penalty killer, and be a centerpiece for a team’s five-on-five play to be a key cog in all situations.
What others are saying
“Celebrini is a dynamic and skilled dual-threat center who can change a game with just one touch of the puck. His shot and goal scoring touch really popped in this showing, with both his snap shot and one-timer making an impact on the scoresheet. Celebrini has a quick release on his shot and can release the puck while carrying it on the rush, allowing him to catch netminders off guard and score goals from medium range. His slap shot and one-timer add a potent threat to his game on the power play. He always needs to be accounted for when he’s on the ice, as he can let loose a rifle of a one-time shot from the circles to beat goaltenders or cause net mouth scrambles.” – FCHockey crossover scout Brandon Holmes.
Celebrini’s tracked games: October 13th, 2023, February 23rd, 2024, and March 9th, 2024