These teams have the best NHL Draft Lottery odds at the All-Star break
Some teams are chasing Lord Stanley’s Cup, no doubt. Others, though, have their eyes fixed firmly on that NHL Draft Lottery and, by extension, Macklin Celebrini.
And if the balls bounce the right way, one team will emerge from the 2024 NHL Draft with the potential cornerstone center. Each loss moves an NHL club closer to Celebrini, with wins ever-so-slightly affecting the odds at the No. 1 pick in the annual selection process.
With the NHL breaking for All-Star weekend and most teams having undergone their midterm scouting meetings, there’s undoubtedly a buzz amongst the fanbases of teams well outside the playoff picture, hoping only to be ‘slackin’ for Macklin.’
“He’s as complete a forward as you’ll find in the 2024 draft,” FCHockey managing editor Aaron Vickers said. “He checks every box that you’re looking for in a top draft prospect, and his pro-ready maturity will have him making an impact at the NHL level sooner rather than later. He has the high-end offensive skill required of a potential No. 1 pick, including an impressive shot, elite playmaking ability, in-zone awareness befitting of a top prospect, and he couples it all with a compete-level and desire that’ll rival any in the class. He can be a cornerstone piece relied on to help turn a franchise’s fortunes.”
But, even a last-place finish in the NHL standings only guarantees a 25.5% shot at Celebrini, who topped FCHockey’s Midterm ranking for the 2024 draft. A 31st-place result nets a 13.5% rate of success, while that drops to 11.5% for third.
Finishing outside the top-11 in the inverse standings? Sorry, no chance for you. Teams can only jump 10 spots in the NHL Draft Lottery, meaning a 12th-place finish nets the No. 2 pick and the consolation prize, potentially, of the likes of Ivan Demidov, Artyom Levshunov, Berkly Catton, Konsta Helenius, or Anton Silayev.
It’s why, unfortunately, losses are more coveted than wins for fans on Team Tank.
Here’s a look at who has the best odds to nab the No. 1 pick via the NHL Draft Lottery, date to-be-determined, as we enter the NHL All-Star break:
| PICK | TEAM | GP | RECORD | PTS | PTS% | RW | ODDS | ODDS NO. 1 |
| 1 | Chicago Blackhawks | 50 | 14-34-2 | 30 | .300 | 9 | 18.5% | 25.5% |
| 2 | San Jose Sharks | 51 | 14-32-5 | 33 | .324 | 10 | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| 3 | Anaheim Ducks | 50 | 18-30-2 | 38 | .380 | 12 | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| 4 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 50 | 16-24-10 | 42 | .420 | 11 | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| 5 | Ottawa Senators | 47 | 20-25-2 | 42 | .447 | 15 | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| 6 | Minnesota Wild | 49 | 21-23-5 | 47 | .480 | 15 | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| 7 | Montreal Canadiens | 49 | 20-21-8 | 48 | .490 | 11 | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 8 | Buffalo Sabres | 49 | 22-23-4 | 48 | .490 | 20 | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| 9 | Calgary Flames | 49 | 22-22-5 | 49 | .500 | 18 | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| 10 | Arizona Coyotes | 48 | 23-22-3 | 49 | .510 | 18 | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 11 | Seattle Kraken | 50 | 21-19-10 | 52 | .520 | 17 | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 12 | Nashville Predators | 51 | 26-23-2 | 54 | .529 | 20 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 13 | New York Islanders | 49 | 20-17-12 | 52 | .531 | 14 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 14 | Washington Capitals | 47 | 22-18-7 | 51 | .543 | 16 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 15 | New Jersey Devils | 47 | 24-20-3 | 51 | .543 | 19 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 16 | Pittsburgh Penguins* | 46 | 22-17-7 | 51 | .554 | 18 | 0.5% | 0% |
*Pick traded to the San jose Sharks but is top-10 protected
How key is winning the lottery?
Just ask the Chicago Blackhawks, currently with the best odds in 2024, who won the rights to the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft last May after having the third-best odds at 11.5% a year ago. The reward? Connor Bedard. The Edmonton Oilers can vouch, too. They too had just an 11.5% chance at securing the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NHL Draft before jumping to the pole position to select Connor McDavid two months later.
Celebrini isn’t quite the caliber prospect of Bedard or McDavid — few are — but the impact the 17-year-old Boston University freshman can have on an organization can’t be minimized. He’s the clear-cut No. 1 for the 2024 draft, and with good reason.
It’s why fanbases near the bottom of the NHL standings aren’t too upset when their team drops one down the stretch.
Each setback is a step forward towards a potential No. 1 center.
And that’s reason to Celebrini.