Dengler Media

Kyle

Pereira

June 9, 2025

Matthew Schaefer and his case as the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NHL Draft

Matthew Schaefer has been atop the charts for the 2025 NHL Draft for much of the season.

He remains, despite playing a total of just 26 hockey games — including 17 Ontario Hockey League twirls where he netted 22 points (seven goals, 15 assists), and an additional pair of games with Canada at the 2025 IIHF World Junior Championship, with the latter of the two resulting in a season-ending broken clavicle.

He left an impression in the time he did play.

Schaefer was nothing short of phenomenal, a true testament to just how good the left-shot defenseman was when he played.

So, what has made him such a highly touted prospect despite missing a lot of games this season? Why has he maintained a top spot despite the season Michael Misa had, along with a point-per-game NCAA season from James Hagens?

Schaefer’s skating

Schaefer’s skating is elite. Not just OHL/junior hockey elite, either. He has NHL-elite skating. Schaefer is one of the best skaters in the class, without any question. His top-end speed is outstanding, as he has the ability to cruise past opposing players and accelerate past forecheckers with ease. His skating looks incredibly smooth and effortless, able to dip and dodge around oppositional pressure.

Schaefer can turn on the jets very quickly, with rapid acceleration to blow past opposing players. His edgework is a thing to marvel at as well. He can slip around traffic like it is nothing. His skating alone could make his transition to the NHL far easier on him to handle, as he can already step into the NHL as one of the top skaters there.

Offensive zone impacts

As for his offensive zone presence, Schaefer loves getting involved. He’s willing to step into the play and pose as a threat as a shooter. He likes to sneak down from the point as an option. Where he is most dangerous, however, is off the rush. If he leads the rush himself, he is more than willing to make a quick pass and drive the net hard, as if he is a fourth forward on the ice. With the puck on his stick, he is a threat to attack at any moment.

As a shooter, he likes to keep shots smart and aim them low and toward the net. His shot threatens as an opportunity for tips and rebounds. On the man advantage, he lets his shooting go a bit more, showcasing a powerful shot that can get through traffic consistently. But he is a pass-first player, looking to move the puck and reposition himself to make the next play. While he mostly takes what is given, not taking too many risks, he also has the confidence to push the puck into those high-danger scoring areas on occasion.

While his offensive skill is excellent, he can get carried away a bit with how often he gets involved deep in the offensive zone. Some NHL coaches won’t really enjoy that sort of style from a defender, and it is something he could look to dial back a bit. Additionally, his shot, outside of the power play, does tend to get blocked at a very high rate. It isn’t necessarily an issue, but he struggles getting pucks through traffic at even strength, which was interesting to see.

Smart puck-moving playmaker

Schaefer, across three randomly-tracked games, attempted 23 passes in the offensive zone at even-strength. Of those, he completed 19 of them (a 82.61% completion rate). Eight of his total passes were deemed dangerous (centering or cross-ice passes), which made up just shy of 35% of his pass attempts. That displays how often he went for those high-danger passes. His high completion percentage shows how smart he is as a passer as a whole. He generated just one shot assist (primary pass before a shot on goal) despite that, with that one shot assist not generating a scoring chance. Of his four incomplete passes, only one led to a giveaway.

On the man advantage in those games, he attempted 16 passes in the offensive end, completing 14 of them (an 87.5% rate). Only one of those passes were deemed dangerous, however. This showed his preference for smart possession passes from the point to the flanks. Once again, he generated only one shot assist, though this time it led to a quality scoring chance.

A balanced offensive attack

While Schaefer is a smart and dangerous passer, particularly at even-strength, he also looks to shoot the puck frequently as well. Across those same games, he fired off 16 shots at even-strength. He put seven of those shots on net (a 43.75% on net rate) with eight of his attempts being blocked. Of his attempts, he recorded two dangerous shots by type — off the rush or one-timers — and two dangerous shots by location, as defined by the home-plate/slot area.

He dialed back his shooting on the power play. He fired off three shots total, with all three hitting the net. While he was more efficient as a shooter, not a single shot was deemed dangerous by type or location. All three shots came from the point area, where he quarterbacks the play.

Schaefer’s offensive game summarized

Schaefer is a well-balanced offensive presence who makes his mark as a playmaker. He loves getting involved in the play and jumping up from the point area as a threat. His shot does pack a good amount of power, but he can be careless at times with his shot selections, leading to those blocks. As a passer, he doesn’t just look for the home run plays, but he does take advantage at times if there’s a lane.

When Schaefer is given space to attack, he can pose a threat as both a shooter and passer. If you leave him a passing lane, he will find it. If you leave him space, he will exploit it. But at the same time, while he doesn’t make very many mistakes with the puck that lead to costly turnovers, his uber-aggressive style could bite him in the NHL at times.

Schaefer in transition

Schaefer again shines when it comes to transitioning the puck from defense to offense. His skating is just phenomenal. When he has the runway of the defensive zone, neutral zone, and offensive zone to skate through, there are very few ways to shut him down. He is so shifty and confident, unafraid to carry the puck himself. But he also flashed a strong stretch pass ability, able to spring teammates up ice with an excellent pass in stride.

Exiting the defensive zone, he hardly made mistakes. He knew when to pull the trigger and when to play smart. That’s the sign of a highly intelligent puck-mover. It can be easy for a player of his talent and skating ability to throw caution to the wind and push up ice aggressively. He did not do that often enough to be a bad habit to shake. His ability to not only be able to attack with that aggression, but also understand when it’s best to play smart, is invaluable to a team.

Schaefer entering the offensive zone

When it comes to pushing the puck up ice, across those three games, Schaefer was directly involved on 33 of his team’s 108 entry attempts with him on the ice at even-strength. That means he was involved in 30.56% of his teams entries directly. That’s the second-most of the 12 total defensemen tracked in the class, and behind only Logan Hensler of the University of Wisconsin. To put that in perspective, no other defender has more than 20% involvement in this area. Of his 33 entry attempts, they successfully entered the zone on 15 of them (a 45.45% controlled entry rate). Of the remaining 18 attempts, 11 were dump-ins and seven were entry fails.

On the man advantage, Schaefer was directly involved in one of his team’s four entry attempts. That one attempt led to a successful controlled entry.

Schaefer exiting the defensive zone

As for exiting his own end, Schaefer was directly involved on 25 of his team’s 80 attempts in his minutes (a 31.25% involvement rate). Of his 25 exit attempts, he successfully generated 13 controlled exits (a 52% rate). The other 12 attempts saw him chip the puck out, without control, on eight of them, while four failed to clear the zone entirely.

In his shorthanded minutes, Schaefer was directly involved on five of his team’s 11 attempts. Of those five attempts, he successfully exited the zone with possession on two of them, while he chipped the puck out on the other three. He did not fail to exit the zone a single time on his attempts in those shorthanded minutes.

Defensive zone impact

When it comes to defending, a lot of defenders in the same ilk as Schaefer usually struggle. Guys like Lane Hutson, for example, who are dominant puck-movers with a ton of offensive skill, don’t always showcase the best defensive abilities. While Schaefer isn’t a game-changer on the back end, he is far from a liability. His positioning in his own end is strong, with a quick, active stick to boot. He’s steady back there.

As for defending against the rush, Schaefer mostly excels. His quick stick is more noticeable in this area. He was able to thwart a ton of rushes himself because of it. He plays with a tight gap and does well timing when he steps up and into an oppositional rush to break it up.

If there’s something to cherry-pick, it’s those pinches. While he times his pinches well, while also holding the skating ability to recover when he gets beat, it still led to scoring chances for the opposition. Multiple times, he pinched up to break up a rush, but the puck was played into space. Another opposing forward skated into that puck, leading to an odd-man rush. Another small issue is that he lacks a physical edge to his game. He didn’t really get engaged in physical battles often.

Numbers against the rush

In those same three games, Schaefer was attacked directly by the opposition on 57 of the opposition’s 105 entry attempts at even-strength (a 54.29% target rate). Of those 57, he denied 18 of them (31.58% denial rate) and forced 22 dump-ins (38.6% dump-in rate). He gave up controlled entries on 17 rushes, ultimately shutting down more than he gave up.

When it came to retrieving dump-ins, there were 41 dump-ins forced by him and his partner at even-strength. He was in the area to retrieve the dump-in on 20 of them. Schaefer successfully retrieved the puck on 15 of them, failing to retrieve the puck on the other five (a 75% success rate).

In-zone defensive numbers

As for his in-zone ability, Schaefer forced nine takeaways himself in those three games, at even-strength. That includes two passes that he intercepted himself, shutting down an oppositional opportunity.

In total, he had 43 defensive zone puck touches and only turned the puck over four times. That is a very low 9.3% defensive zone giveaway rate. That is the second-best rate of those same 12 defenders tracked (behind only Hensler again, who had just 15 touches). No other defenders had less than a 10% giveaway rate. In fact, just one other defender in the data set had more than 20 touches (24 to be exact).

Where will he go and what role will he play?

Schaefer, as mentioned, is the projected top pick in the 2025 draft. If he doesn’t go first, he isn’t falling further than third. That’s how good he was in the limited games he played this season. When it comes to projecting his NHL impact, he looks the part of a future No. 1 defender for his team. His strong two-way game is evident when you watch him play. An NHL team would covet his presence on their blue line.

He should be able to step into the NHL as soon as this next season. However, it wouldn’t be shocking if a team gives him another season in juniors due to how many games he missed this year. Any one of those top three teams could use his presence on their roster.

What others are saying

“Schaefer continued his fantastic draft year by showcasing his game on both ends of the ice. He’s blessed with elite skating ability that allows him to roam the ice without getting caught behind the play. That was evident both on the rush and in the offensive zone, where he comfortably sneaked down low before seamlessly returning to position. Similarly, his top-notch edge work helps him elude pressure in his own zone and walk the line in the offensive zone with ease.” FCHockey regional scout Kareem Elshafey

“Schaefer is easily one of the most impressive prospects for the 2025 draft and a personal favorite of mine. He projects as a top-pairing defenseman at the NHL level, possessing all the tools to become a franchise-altering player capable of playing heavy minutes. His combination of offensive abilities and reliable defensive play puts him on track to likely be the first defenseman selected, and I fully expect him to be a top-five pick in the 2025 draft.” – FCHockey regional scout Mike Kennedy

Schaefer’s tracked games

April 4, 2024 versus Kitchener
November 20, 2024 versus Brampton
November 23, 2024 versus Kitchener

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