FCHockey
Staff
March 9, 2024

These teams have the best NHL Draft Lottery odds post Trade Deadline

In it to win it, or ‘team tank?’

The 2024 NHL Trade Deadline passed Friday with some significant buyers and sellers emerging over the past few weeks. Some teams were looking to bolster their shot at Lord Stanley’s Cup, with others hoping — indirectly — they’ve just boosted their odds at calling Macklin Celebrini to the stage by way of an NHL Draft Lottery win.

That’s right, it’s officially the  ‘slackin’ for Macklin’ stretch now.

For good reason, too.

“Fans who were spoiled by Connor Bedard a year ago, don’t be fooled… Celebrini is a significant prize at No. 1 in this year’s draft,” FCHockey crossover scout Brandon Holmes said. “He’s an elite offensive talent with 90-plus point potential at the NHL level. He checks just about every box that you look for in a top-line talent — skill, creativity, offensive vision, and an NHL-caliber shot. Celebrini competes hard, is quick, and has a dual-threat offensive tool kit, and should become a franchise cornerstone for whoever is lucky enough to select him.”

POST NHL TRADE DEADLINE MOCK FOR THE 2024 NHL DRAFT

The Chicago Blackhawks, who had the best odds at the NHL All-Star break, retain that dubious distinction as slotting last overall in the NHL standings on the morning of Saturday, March 9. The San Jose Sharks, second back at that same mile-marker, retain that spot. Unsurprisingly, the Anaheim Ducks, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Ottawa Senators also retain that third, fourth, and fifth spots, respectively.

The Arizona Coyotes, however, have managed to slide into sixth. Arizona was 10th in the same sweepstakes in early February.

A last-place finish in the NHL standings only guarantees a 25.5% shot at Celebrini, who topped FCHockey’s Midterm ranking for the 2024 draft. A 31st-place result nets a 13.5% rate of success, while that drops to 11.5% for third.

FCHOCKEY’S MIDTERM RANKING FOR THE 2024 NHL DRAFT

A finish outside the top-11 in the inverse standings leaves not shot at Celebrini. Teams can only jump 10 spots in the NHL Draft Lottery, meaning a 12th-place finish nets the No. 2 pick and the consolation prize, potentially, of the likes of Ivan Demidov, Artyom Levshunov, Berkly Catton, Konsta Helenius, or Anton Silayev.

Here’s a look at who has the best odds to nab the No. 1 pick via the NHL Draft Lottery, date to-be-determined, as we exit the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline:

PICK TEAM GP RECORD PTS PTS% RW ODDS ODDS NO. 1
1 Chicago Blackhawks 63 16-42-5 37 .294 11 18.50% 25.50%
2 San Jose Sharks 62 15-40-7 37 .298 11 13.50% 13.50%
3 Anaheim Ducks 63 23-37-3 49 .389 17 11.50% 11.50%
4 Columbus Blue Jackets 63 22-31-10 54 .429 17 9.50% 9.50%
5 Ottawa Senators 61 25-32-4 54 .443 19 8.50% 8.50%
6 Arizona Coyotes 64 26-33-5 57 .445 21 7.50% 7.50%
7 Montreal Canadiens 63 24-29-10 58 .460 14 6.50% 6.50%
8 Buffalo Sabres 64 29-30-5 63 .492 24 6.00% 6.00%
9 Minnesota Wild 64 30-27-7 67 .523 24 5.00% 5.00%
10 New Jersey Devils 63 31-28-4 66 .524 26 3.50% 3.50%
11 Pittsburgh Penguins 61 28-25-8 64 .525 23 3.00% 3.00%
12 Seattle Kraken 63 28-24-11 67 .532 22 2.50% 0%
13 St. Louis Blues 63 32-28-3 67 .532 24 2.00% 0%
14 Calgary Flames 62 31-26-5 67 .540 26 1.50% 0%
15 Washington Capitals 61 29-23-9 67 .549 23 0.50% 0%
16 Tampa Bay Lightning 64 33-25-6 72 .563 26 0.50% 0%

The Blackhawks won the rights to the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft last May after having the third-best odds at 11.5% a year ago. They selected Bedard. The Edmonton Oilers had just an 11.5% chance at securing the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NHL Draft before jumping to the pole position to select Connor McDavid two months later.

Celebrini isn’t a McDavid or Bedard, and that’s no slight, but the Boston University freshman can certainly help turn the fortunes of a franchise should the lottery balls line up just right.

So, understandably, the odds are something to watch for each franchise vying for the lottery pick.


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