These teams have the best NHL Draft Lottery odds post Trade Deadline
In it to win it, or ‘team tank?’
The 2024 NHL Trade Deadline passed Friday with some significant buyers and sellers emerging over the past few weeks. Some teams were looking to bolster their shot at Lord Stanley’s Cup, with others hoping — indirectly — they’ve just boosted their odds at calling Macklin Celebrini to the stage by way of an NHL Draft Lottery win.
That’s right, it’s officially the ‘slackin’ for Macklin’ stretch now.
For good reason, too.
“Fans who were spoiled by Connor Bedard a year ago, don’t be fooled… Celebrini is a significant prize at No. 1 in this year’s draft,” FCHockey crossover scout Brandon Holmes said. “He’s an elite offensive talent with 90-plus point potential at the NHL level. He checks just about every box that you look for in a top-line talent — skill, creativity, offensive vision, and an NHL-caliber shot. Celebrini competes hard, is quick, and has a dual-threat offensive tool kit, and should become a franchise cornerstone for whoever is lucky enough to select him.”
POST NHL TRADE DEADLINE MOCK FOR THE 2024 NHL DRAFT
The Chicago Blackhawks, who had the best odds at the NHL All-Star break, retain that dubious distinction as slotting last overall in the NHL standings on the morning of Saturday, March 9. The San Jose Sharks, second back at that same mile-marker, retain that spot. Unsurprisingly, the Anaheim Ducks, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Ottawa Senators also retain that third, fourth, and fifth spots, respectively.
The Arizona Coyotes, however, have managed to slide into sixth. Arizona was 10th in the same sweepstakes in early February.
A last-place finish in the NHL standings only guarantees a 25.5% shot at Celebrini, who topped FCHockey’s Midterm ranking for the 2024 draft. A 31st-place result nets a 13.5% rate of success, while that drops to 11.5% for third.
FCHOCKEY’S MIDTERM RANKING FOR THE 2024 NHL DRAFT
A finish outside the top-11 in the inverse standings leaves not shot at Celebrini. Teams can only jump 10 spots in the NHL Draft Lottery, meaning a 12th-place finish nets the No. 2 pick and the consolation prize, potentially, of the likes of Ivan Demidov, Artyom Levshunov, Berkly Catton, Konsta Helenius, or Anton Silayev.
Here’s a look at who has the best odds to nab the No. 1 pick via the NHL Draft Lottery, date to-be-determined, as we exit the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline:
| PICK | TEAM | GP | RECORD | PTS | PTS% | RW | ODDS | ODDS NO. 1 |
| 1 | Chicago Blackhawks | 63 | 16-42-5 | 37 | .294 | 11 | 18.50% | 25.50% |
| 2 | San Jose Sharks | 62 | 15-40-7 | 37 | .298 | 11 | 13.50% | 13.50% |
| 3 | Anaheim Ducks | 63 | 23-37-3 | 49 | .389 | 17 | 11.50% | 11.50% |
| 4 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 63 | 22-31-10 | 54 | .429 | 17 | 9.50% | 9.50% |
| 5 | Ottawa Senators | 61 | 25-32-4 | 54 | .443 | 19 | 8.50% | 8.50% |
| 6 | Arizona Coyotes | 64 | 26-33-5 | 57 | .445 | 21 | 7.50% | 7.50% |
| 7 | Montreal Canadiens | 63 | 24-29-10 | 58 | .460 | 14 | 6.50% | 6.50% |
| 8 | Buffalo Sabres | 64 | 29-30-5 | 63 | .492 | 24 | 6.00% | 6.00% |
| 9 | Minnesota Wild | 64 | 30-27-7 | 67 | .523 | 24 | 5.00% | 5.00% |
| 10 | New Jersey Devils | 63 | 31-28-4 | 66 | .524 | 26 | 3.50% | 3.50% |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 61 | 28-25-8 | 64 | .525 | 23 | 3.00% | 3.00% |
| 12 | Seattle Kraken | 63 | 28-24-11 | 67 | .532 | 22 | 2.50% | 0% |
| 13 | St. Louis Blues | 63 | 32-28-3 | 67 | .532 | 24 | 2.00% | 0% |
| 14 | Calgary Flames | 62 | 31-26-5 | 67 | .540 | 26 | 1.50% | 0% |
| 15 | Washington Capitals | 61 | 29-23-9 | 67 | .549 | 23 | 0.50% | 0% |
| 16 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 64 | 33-25-6 | 72 | .563 | 26 | 0.50% | 0% |
The Blackhawks won the rights to the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft last May after having the third-best odds at 11.5% a year ago. They selected Bedard. The Edmonton Oilers had just an 11.5% chance at securing the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NHL Draft before jumping to the pole position to select Connor McDavid two months later.
Celebrini isn’t a McDavid or Bedard, and that’s no slight, but the Boston University freshman can certainly help turn the fortunes of a franchise should the lottery balls line up just right.
So, understandably, the odds are something to watch for each franchise vying for the lottery pick.